MEIR KALECH

An ability to predict the mileage at failure of components in a complicated system, particularly in automobiles, is a challenging task. In the current work, a methodology for estimating the distribution of failure and survival rate of automobile components affected by multiple factors is presented. A novel adaptation of an ensemble recursive partitioning and tree-based learning method, mutually exclusive forest, is introduced. The proposed method is capable of handling a high dimensional dataset and maximizing the extracted information to estimate the distribution of mileage at failure of automobile components. Each tree in the proposed mutually exclusive forest uses a mutually exclusive set of factors in each of its constituent decision trees to classify the failure data. Information across the trees is combined to obtain the failure rate distribution of an automobile component with respect to mileage. A case study, based on real-world field failure data and censored data of automobile components, is presented to evaluate the proposed algorithm. Results show similar results to the C-Forest approach in terms of prediction quality, while generating models with significantly lower space that are easier to interpret.